Sunday, January 24, 2016

Saving the Indian Economy – RBI to improve to its supervision function instead of saying banks are with Govt and only Govt should take action totally wrong with our western educated governor with lack of Indian Economy knowledge, New economic advisors from India only as lack of Indian Economy knowledge with western educated is no use they should be from major Indian educational institution's a panel of 10 split into 2 to work independently and report to PM & FM only and not to any ministry, Increase public spending in reducing traffic bottlenecks with either flyovers or metros or FOB to reduce zebra crossing or widening of heavy traffic junctions or improving last mile connectivity, using long coastline to gain in wind energy, off shore oil wells, mining revenue under reported by states – river bed sand, LED for all state & central govt offices & Railways, Making oil purchase in rupee to strengthen rupee, Reduce electronics import

RBI has failed on its important function – “Supervision of Banks” for decades now. It has done petty inspections of bank operations, never verified the IT systems of banks as it does not have skills, loan operation of private banks, credit card issued by multiple private banks to same person which leads to default of massive scales if high paying lose their jobs, no credit cards given middleclass people who can only save the economy during crash based on stupid credit reports which are made up for rich alone. RBI thinks with giving license its work is over. It has so much to do I don’t want to detail it the employees and governor know what they don’t do effectively.
RBI can improve its supervisory function by auditing IT systems of banks and ask them to add more checks and monitored by RBI from remote location by separate fraud & risk team, Add new IT concepts like verify pan details by hitting Income Tax servers or have physical pan card verified, avoid multiple credit card to single person, 1st credit for long time bank account holder must be made easy for middleclass with credit limit and salary statement to improve non housing & credit loans to protect banks during crashes as middleclass will pay, making educational loans costly for those who go abroad to study as rupee weakens in long run and why should Govt support for brain drain. All loans above 50 crores must be verified by RBI it cannot sit in Mumbai and just comment. Many loans are given to companies by pressure by certain ministries to banks but RBI should make a comment on whether loan to that company can be given or not. When u restrict a credit card to a normal public by checking so many details for credit score how a corporate evades loans suddenly to evade tax, use for other investments and other frauds. Systemic fraud leads to crash of economy which even re capitalisation with public money wont save
New Economic advisors other than the existing who are educated in India and have been in India with no education abroad. The true power of Indian economic advisors will be much more powerful than a western educated person. The panel can be formed by ways like top economists who write editorials for newspapers like Financial Express or Business Standard, top economists who write articles in Economic and political weekly magazine, IIBF, Business magazines and top professors in IIM and other research institutions under state or central govt only. Other panellist can be from retired people from top public sector banks, RBI, Finance Ministry. A panel of 10 split into 5 each should guide PM & FM in boosting Indian Economy across all ministries. I am ok with hiring even a Asian economist with Indian background from Singapore, Hong Kong, China, Thailand, Japan as the concepts of Asian economies totally wary from western economies. Western ideas wont work in Asian economies. Don’t hire people of investment companies or past severe media interaction.
Public spending must be increased by avoiding foreign loans in dollars and other currencies. Since when the loan payment starts even if interest rate is low we tend to pay more due to rupee devaluation and global factors. So when trying to take loans, purchasing oil try to make around 50% of the purchase with rupee only so future fluctuations are protected. Also try to use methods to raise money in India more than abroad by using infra bonds for each sector, tax free bonds regularly, hybrid investment fund with equity(5 yrs. locking) & debt, pure equity investment fund no lock in. Use NRI and PIO to cash in on the public investment cycle by easier norms to get funds from outside India other than real estate investment. There is scope for billions in remittance possible by NRI/PIO in public investment by working out channels. Budget should focus on revenue with estimate of growth at 5%
Reducing imports should be new strategy till exports start to pick up. Imports on Electronics need to be contained by heavily taxing for even small goods like USB, tax free operations for electronics chip level manufacturers for 3 years in India to reduce imports of even USB pen drives to India. Selling agricultural produce at higher prices to earn more revenue and targeting oil rich countries as they lack agricultural produce due to geographical position. Increasing agricultural produce with use of high-tech and forming separate Agricultural engineering group with more mechanisation and separate entity of Central Govt with latest farm equipment to work with farmers at even low rent or free to increase river depth and river storage capacity in drought prone areas, nationalisation of rivers to inter connect rivers to reduce drought, artificial rain in drought prone areas, drones to monitor cultivation, multiple crops in single area to double produce, doubling aquatic produce, more tea & coffee sales, reducing farm loan distress by increasing loan duration by 1 year when farmer proves his region affected by drought, compulsory crop insurance, aadhaar based transfer of money to farmers for MSP by FCI, more investment under MNREGA by separate wing under MNREGA to have needed equipment only using manpower skills, adult education in schools during weekends and making all aware of state & central govt schemes to prevent media and newspaper cooking up unwanted stories & paid & planted news. Implementing successful programmes of states in centre – e.g. TN canteen scheme for public, etc,.
Increasing rupee value by re-validating some of the external loans and oil purchases to purchase to reduce dollar demand in India and buy in rupee to increase rupee value. Some oil rich countries will accept to this if negotiated wisely. Making gold bonds attractive by offering higher interest rates up to 9% for those who take bonds with up to 7-8 years of value. Increasing tax on cinema as major expenditure of middleclass is draining to single sector and film actors and single group of entities are making money. Closing money coming into markets from Mauritius, Singapore as circular route from India itself leading to excessive black money in stock markets by taking new stand that FPI are also ok with or getting details of all FPI investment in India by any means to avoid loopholes or FATCA like rule for India similar to USA
Public investment in reducing traffic bottlenecks will go long way in boosting GDP. Joint partnership by public, state & central Govt to identify traffic bottle necks by separate wing of NHAI to reduce them at earliest or using Metro projects to reduce same. The cost of flyover over several places or a single metro project are both equal. So hence traffic analysis wing needed to be formed to reduce traffic to reduce traffic inside cities and in highways. Handing over of some highways under state to central govt to make it 4 lanes with facilities to boost growth in poorly maintained areas with states. Spending on more foot over bridges, more flyovers near key railway crossing which cause wait times, traffic bottlenecks when entering city from highways, etc,. Must be overcome. NHAI must ask toll operators to increase width of road in profitable highway projects to continue or exit once the BOT time is over. Golden Quadrilateral needs more lanes in some sections. Separate website to report traffic menace to improve GDP
Long coastal line could be used to generate wind energy along the coastline in several places to generate electricity. LED tube lights or bulbs in highways projects will help. LED bulbs to replace in all state & central govt offices will go a long way. Revenue from mining operations is under reported by most states and scope for revenue for several crores is there. More plantation of bigger trees along old highways especially golden quadrilateral will help bring rains and reduce pollution and noise from highways. More off shore drilling projects in Indian waters & abroad. Revenue by selling Indian food for NRI abroad.

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